“Lethal Mutations” – When the direction of Government Policy is fundamentally flawed or damaging from its conception, and which ultimately leads to severe harm or the eventual collapse of the system or society it was intended to govern.

I do try to start every blog with some happy news from the world of education. This Tuesday, I joined a nationwide on-line meeting with the Minister of State (Minister for School Standards) at the Department for Education, Georgia Gould, around the need for ‘Local’ SEND reform. I applaud the Minister for making herself available for a succession of similar events, all to form part of the country’s need to ensure all children in nurseries and schools get the support needed to ensure their school years are successful.
The trouble with the process of reform now underway is that the scale of the problem is so vast that reforming the identification of children who need additional support simply won’t cut it. Scotland’s analysis of the situation shows that 43% of children fall into this category, representing a doubling of need over just the last 10 years. The situation is measured differently in England, where the statistics (21% with SEN) cover a higher severity of need before being recorded. However, the almost doubling of spend over the last 5 Years for High Needs funding is indicative that the challenges are rapidly increasing in England too, and if it were measured by similar parameters to Scotland, the % would be pretty similar.
Teachers’ leaders have previously said that schools were being overwhelmed by an “explosion” in children with additional support needs, including dyslexia, ADD and ADHD. What has been abundantly clear for over 15 years now is that access to the professional identification of learning differences and difficulties has become so delayed and so costly that children’s needs reach crisis level before appropriate diagnosis and treatment plans to enable interventions to start.
Commenting on the government’s response, chair of the Parliamentary Education Select Committee Helen Hayes said: “We understand that the government isn’t in a position to answer our report’s recommendations in detail whilst it is still developing its SEND reforms. However, the current response will only suffice as an interim response because it does not directly address any of our report’s recommendations in the way that is expected of an official response to a Select Committee inquiry.”
Statisticians describe the distribution of populations as being covered by a bell curve, of which the following is an example. Standard deviation (STD) shows the expected differences between what’s normal and what’s not, and in terms of additional need, the graph below shows for needs in school, there is a top and tail that would usually require our attention, but that 90% should be described as normal.

In 2025, the Bell curve for children’s needs has been badly shifted, looking far more like the following:
Essentially, this is demonstrating we now have a school system that is now longer offering the provision needed for a significant minority of the population. This is where the toxicity of government policy to reduce the spending on children’s services since 2010 and the subsequent toughening up of academic standards in schools since 2014 have really begun to bite. And this is not just because of the growing awareness of parents that their children are struggling to meet the academic standards expected of them for reading, writing, numeracy and broader reasoning at ages 7, 11, 14 and 16. When you look at the underlying cause of children’s struggle, the major common single reason for children and adolescents listed is “social, emotional or behavioural difficulty”.
The Independent sector in England recognises these difficulties far more rapidly, such that earlier interventions take place and at an earlier age. As our pupils rise up through the various developmental stages of children’s development, so more precise identification of the specific challenges takes place. You can see this is the sector’s recognition of access arrangements (EAR) for public examination. The Labour government started bleating that our sector is a softer touch for giving out EARs; the clarity of these statistics highlight our children get the legal support they need and that it’s the state sector that’s lagging behind.
So what’s the solution then?
Return the Investment in Early Years Health Visiting in England to previous levels, this has significantly declined since 2015, marked by substantial cuts to the Public Health Grant, leading to a dramatic workforce reduction (nearly 40% by 2022), increased caseloads, missed mandated child reviews, and widespread service pressure, despite growing evidence of need and calls for increased funding to support early child development.
Increase English state school budgets back to 2010 levels; these have seen significant real-terms declines per pupil since 2009-10, with cuts averaging 9% by 2019-20, impacting secondary schools more (9%) than primaries (2%), and even more severely in deprived areas, leading to squeezed resources, staff shortages, and increased dependency on loans, despite government pledges to restore funding, as rising costs for energy, staff, and SEND needs outpace funding increases, creating a sustained crisis. Schools face an estimated £1.8bn shortfall in core funding this last year, impacting staffing and resources.
When the government of the day seeks independent advice, act on it! After COVID, the Conservative government appointed Sir Kevan Collins to recommend a comprehensive education recovery plan. His proposals, costed at approximately £15 billion, included:
- Funding for an extra 100 hours of teaching per pupil.
- Extending the school day by 30 minutes for a fixed, three-year period to allow for both academic and extracurricular activities like sports, music, and the arts.
- Significant investment in the teaching profession and targeted academic support, primarily through tutoring.
- Prioritising support for early years and mental health & wellbeing.
The government ultimately announced a much smaller package worth an initial £1.4 billion, which Sir Kevan described as “far short of what is needed”, “too narrow, too small and will be delivered too slowly”, leading to his resignation in June 2021.
Whilst I applaud the current government’s initiative to resolve the SEN funding issues in local authorities, essentially bankrupted already by the mounting costs of the ‘High Needs’ they face, taking a further 3 years to change the rules simply means the crisis will get worse in the meantime.
And finally, the Labour government’s policy, which has added 20% VAT to independent school tuition fees for 12 months now, is clearly yet another ‘Lethal Mutation’. Flagged up as a way for funding 6,500 more teachers into the state sector, the UK Parliament’s cross-party Public Accounts Committee (PAC) found that the Department for Education (DfE) lacks a “coherent plan, suitable targets and sufficient evidence” to increase the number of teachers. The committee criticised the department for failing to outline how it will achieve its manifesto pledge to recruit an additional 6,500 teachers.
So what can Independent school parents, teachers and alumni do now to ensure their voices are heard, to add to the political pressure heads and school associations have focused on their local MPs as well as the national government? Make the step by joining the Association for Families of Independent Schooling (AFIS). AFIS is the only membership organisation that brings together families who choose and value independent education in the U.K. and British international schooling. Their work supports their member families and the wider sector by championing choice, fair representation, and greater access to independent education.
You can join AFIS here: https://www.afis.org.uk/register
It’s FREE to join AFIS as an individual, a family or a school. As the Academic Principal, I have joined our school as a founding partner of AFIS, and together with many other heads in due course, will encourage AFIS to grow in influence to support our communities even more fully. Our school is already recognised as a pioneering AFIS Foundation Partner School, one of the very first in the UK.




















