Back on 12 July 2019, I wrote about jinxing things. A year earlier, in a newsletter to parents, I had briefly reflected on the challenges facing the England football team just after their World Cup semi-final exit, alongside observations on our then Prime Minister and local MP, the Rt Hon Theresa May. Twelve months later, the headlines were eerily familiar: England had once again stumbled at the semi-final stage, while Theresa May was still wrestling with colleagues in Parliament. It seemed I had become rather good at predicting history by accident.
At the time I confessed: “Dear Reader, please forgive me if I tread carefully today; I have become deeply superstitious over the years, fearing I might ‘jinx’ almost anything.” For anyone unfamiliar with the expression, to jinx simply means tempting fate by speaking too confidently—or too soon—about something we dearly hope will happen. Irrational? Almost certainly. But then football has never been an entirely rational pastime.
It will therefore come as no surprise to those who know me that I was unable to watch England’s 2026 World Cup semi-final. For reasons both rational and irrational, I believed it safer to keep my distance. When England scored, however, the inevitable message arrived: We’re ahead! Better still, momentum was with the Three Lions. Hope—always the most dangerous emotion for an England supporter—began to stir.
Then came what I can only describe as the defensive mind-set switch: the same team, the same players, no longer seeking another goal, now seeking to protect what they had won.
Extra defenders arrived, the shape became even more cautious, and the emphasis shifted from winning the game to not losing it. The initiative quietly slipped away. Argentina sensed it, equalised and, ultimately, prevailed. Thomas Tuchel later spoke about aspects of England’s organisation and aerial vulnerability, but that felt like only part of the story. The larger lesson was painfully familiar. Having gained the advantage, England no longer played with the confidence that had earned it.
Watching from a safe distance (which, of course, made absolutely no difference whatsoever), I found myself asking a rather larger question. Has virtuosity become unfashionable? By virtuosity, I do not simply mean extraordinary talent. I mean the confidence to pursue excellence through imagination, mastery and creative courage, even when the safer option beckons. It is the quality that separates the merely competent from the genuinely exceptional.
On a football pitch, virtuosity means trusting gifted players to keep expressing themselves rather than assuming another defender will somehow make everything secure. The beautiful game flourishes in what the psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi described as flow—that wonderful state where complete concentration takes over, action becomes instinctive, and excellence feels almost effortless. England seemed to step out of that rhythm. Argentina did not. Excessive caution invited precisely the pressure it hoped to avoid.
The thought stayed with me because football has an irritating habit of exposing truths that extend well beyond ninety minutes. In football, defensive substitutions are made to protect success. Yet, all too often, they surrender initiative. I cannot help wondering whether we are making rather too many defensive substitutions elsewhere—in our economy, in public policy and, perhaps most worryingly, in education. Confidence gives way to caution. Aspiration yields to preservation.
Take the economy. Britain works hard to establish fiscal stability and international credibility, only then to appear reluctant to build confidently upon those foundations. Too often we reach for tighter controls, higher burdens and policies designed to minimise risk rather than maximise opportunity. Stability surely exists for a purpose. Once ahead, the instinct should be to invest, innovate and encourage enterprise—not immediately retreat into our own half.
The same question arises in education. Britain’s independent schools have earned an international reputation for excellence over generations. They are places where scholarship, character, creativity and service are intentionally cultivated. Young people are encouraged to think deeply, build secure knowledge and experience those moments of complete intellectual engagement that underpin genuine learning. These are hardly indulgences; they are among the conditions in which individuals and societies flourish.
Against that backdrop, the decision to impose VAT on independent school fees from January 2025 risks becoming another defensive substitution. Whatever the policy’s intentions, it replaces encouragement for a flourishing sector with a fiscal mechanism whose longer-term consequences remain uncertain. Families already making significant sacrifices to educate their children face further pressure, while schools inevitably have fewer resources to invest in innovation, bursaries and educational excellence. It seems an odd way to treat one of Britain’s educational success stories.
After more than forty-five years in education, I have become convinced that genuine learning resembles virtuosic performance far more than it resembles risk management. Children grow when they are challenged, trusted and inspired to attempt difficult things. Teachers flourish when they are free to exercise judgement and creativity. Schools thrive when excellence is celebrated rather than quietly apologised for.
Virtuosity is not dead. Far from it. But it does seem increasingly asked to justify its existence, while caution is too often assumed to be a virtue in itself. The latest figures highlighted by the Sutton Trust provide an interesting illustration. It notes that around 15% of England’s 2026 World Cup squad and almost 60% of the men’s international cricket team were educated independently. For some, those statistics are evidence of imbalance. I find myself asking a different question: what are these schools doing consistently well that enables talent to flourish?
That should not be a cause for embarrassment; it should provoke curiosity. Britain’s independent schools have spent generations cultivating scholarship, character, creativity and opportunity. They create environments where young people are encouraged to pursue mastery, experience the ‘flow’, and develop the confidence to excel. Excellence is not a finite resource to be rationed but an example to be emulated. If our response is to penalise institutions that have demonstrably fostered high achievement, we risk making yet another defensive substitution—replacing aspiration with ideology, and confidence with caution. A confident nation should seek to multiply excellence wherever it finds it, not diminish it.
Whether on the football pitch, in the Treasury or in education policy, leadership requires the confidence to keep playing forward when the temptation is to retreat. The greatest rewards rarely belong to those who simply protect an advantage. They belong to those prepared to build upon it.
And yes, before anyone writes to me, Lionel Messi remains footballing royalty. There are moments when genius simply bends events to its own will, and we should have the grace to acknowledge it. England may have been defeated by more than tactical substitutions. Sometimes the other side really does have the better magician.
At least this time there was no Hand of God. Just a timely reminder that defensive substitutions—on the pitch and off it—rarely produce greatness.






















